Future of CPU- Short Term Perspective

The CPU market is now highly competitive in every segment that includes Desktop, Server and Mobile. No Doubt its one of the most exciting time for CPU enthusiast and GPU now in starting to feel the heat.

AMD has done a superb job with the launch of ZEN 2 cores and reduces single core performance gap with Intel, has tremendous multithreaded performance, lower power usage and is bang for bucks with lower prices in every corner. Plus they now have multi win in server space.

Intel still continues to be gaming king, has robust server side support and has huge market share. All that in mature 14nm fabrication process and are now rearing their head with 10nm.

ARM has almost completely captured mobile market and there are no competition in site. MIPS is almost out, Intel is also out and AMD is just gaining traction with GPU by licensing their RDNA to Samsung.

So whats the future?

Well its kind of boring to be honest. At least in near future. With mega budget capacity, Intel is almost poised to leapfrog AMD once they have their 10nm and beyond sorted out. With veterans like Raja Koduri and Jim Keller, they might pull a Athlon Dual vs Core once again. But AMD is also not sitting idle.

So why boring? That’s because they leap in processing power is still marginal with 10% to 15% gain in IPC YoY. Even with healthy competition, we don’t have anything in sight with jump like 40% to 50%. The node shrink is now hitting its limit, the only method to improve performance is optimization.

Mobile sector is even more boring. Clearly Apple has the upper hand when it comes to custom ARM cores. But then ARM has zero competition in mobile segment. Except change in vendor’s implementation. MIPS have failed to compete with ARM to make a duopoly in mobile CPU segment.

Is everything headed to boring then?

There is one spec of bright spot in this negative post. RISC V! This is an open instructions on which CPUs can be built and is seemingly trending with tech companies. These CPUs can be build by anyone, has no royalty attached and anyone can contribute in future development. It can be scaled from IOT like devices to server level implementation. Companies like Alibaba, western digital are already in the process of utilizing the cores from hard disk to server. Understandably, Chinese must be keen in developing them after Huawie fiasco.

With so many benefits in sight, RISC V (or VI depending upon future development) could usher new CPU development in completely different pattern i.e. collaborative CPU development where any company can help in development, fix any vulnerability quickly (hello spectare bugs) and no vendor lock ins with proprietary licensed implementation like X86 and ARM. Can be scaled with right fabrication. The future of silicon based collaborative CPU seems bright.

Until the next wave of CPU model comes. Which is the upcoming topic in Insight segment. See you soon!

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Abhishek

Abhishek is a Finance Professional and has worked in multiple MNCs. However, he is also an avid tech reader and tinkerer with over 20 years of experience. His passions include 3D animation and drawing Illustrations. His creations can be viewed at www.artstation.com/abhifx

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